Presentations available (pdf):
Video on YouTube (video on YouTube site):
Wouldn't it be great to know the future? Imagine being able to accurately forecast future sales, assess the likelihood of success for a new startup or anticipate how well stocks will perform. Now we don't need to rely on fortune tellers, palm readers or tarot cards. Enter prediction markets - "smart" markets capable of accurately predicting outcomes of uncertain future events by harnessing what author James Surowiecki coined "the wisdom of crowds." They have been used to predict Oscar winners, the 2008 Presidential election and corporate strategies, among other things.
This month's Berkeley Entrepreneurs Forum takes a fresh look at this new crystal ball. Our panel of experts will focus on the usefulness and accuracy of different prediction strategies - from prediction market software to experimental economics which replicates market and business scenarios in the lab. You won't want to miss this window into the future, especially given how volatile these days have been.
Our distinguished panel includes:
Co-founder & CEO,
Kay-Yut Chen, Principal Scientist at Hewlett-Packard, leads the first experimental economics program in any company—the experimental economics lab, which he established in 1994 immediately after earning his PhD from Caltech. Kay-Yut has pioneered the application of experimental economics to businesses in areas such as supply chain contracting, risk management and human-based forecasting. His research has been used in many divisions of HP organizations including Consumer Business Organization, HP Procurement, and the printer division. His laboratory designed part of the standard contract between Hewlett-Packard and US retailers like Walmart and Best Buy.
Kay-Yut has broad research interests and publishes in multiple scientific disciplines including economics, management science, computer science and even physics. Kay-Yut’s work has been featured in Scientific American, Risk Magazine, Newsweek, Financial Times, The Wall Street Journal, BusinessWeek.com, and Portfolio.com.
Mat Fogarty, Co-Founder and CEO of Xpree, a leading provider of prediction market software to crowd-source business forecasts and innovation. Mat has over 10 years experience forecasting in Fortune 500 corporations. Prior to founding Xpree, he was the Director of Corporate Financial Planning at Electronic Arts where he pioneered the use of prediction markets. Prior to EA, he worked in strategic finance, venture capital and financial planning. In 2001, Mat was featured on the cover of Inc Magazine as the “New Entrepreneurial Elite”. Mat is a member of the Chartered Institute of Management Accountants (CIMA) and holds a BS in Management Science from the London School of Economics and an MBA from UC Berkeley.
Kirill Makharinsky, Co-Founder of YouNoodle.com, the startup innovation company which has recently launched with funding from Peter Thiel, The Founders Fund, Max Levchin and several other investors. YouNoodle is developing and distributing data tools for the startup industry. Kirill led the data development of their first product, Startup Predictor, which generates a scientific prediction of a startup's future outcome by analyzing data on thousands of other early-stage companies. Prior to YouNoodle, Kirill managed analytics and metrics at Slide, the world's largest publisher of social entertainment applications, reaching over 150 million unique people every month. Previously he had been established as the #1 Graduate in the UK based on his work while at Oxford University. Kirill was also in the founding team and President of Oxford Entrepreneurs (the largest student enterprise club in Europe) and graduated from Oxford with a double first in Applied Mathematics.
The program begins with a networking hour at 6:30 PM with complimentary drinks and hors d'oeuvres in the Bank of America Forum at the Haas School of Business.
Registration is required. If you are currently a UC Berkeley faculty, staff, or student, a Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory employee, or associated with the UC Office of the President, call 642-4255 or e-mail firstname.lastname@example.org for special rates. If you are unfamiliar with the UC Berkeley campus, check out the campus map to locate the Haas School on the east (uphill) side of campus.